My previous reports are listed at the bottom.  By now, you’ve figured out whether you want to read on.

Too many notes for one post.  Part 1 focuses mostly on national and top-of-ticket state races.  Part 2 coming after Oct 25 CSC reports are posted (there are surprises, some pleasant).  Hopefully, this is new or different information which you don’t have because you are totally involved in getting your conservative or Republican elected.

35% of the votes in this election are already cast.  For remaining conservative voters, closely consider your candidate’s positions.  Some folks got surprised, or are disappointed, by office holders we thought were conservative.  I’ve watched other states become dissatisfied with liberal Republicans and actually do something about it.  You are certainly NOT voting for the D.  Vote and support, or not, after you CAREFULLY study and understand positions on the economy, education, life, Akaka, civil unions and taxes so that you are informed.

Djou closing.  Remember when I predicted (guessed) a one point win, either way?  fivethirtynine update has HI-1 Djou closing from 2.9 (Oct 8) to 1.3 points behind Hanabusa who has a 56.7% chance of win, down from 63.5.  Projection for Nov 2 is a Hanabusa 1.2 point win.  Their predictions are historically very good but I say (they heavily weight the left-leaning PPP poll) that Djou is in better shape than they predict.  Ouch, 3Q numbers are out and Hanabusa outraised Djou (again) and has considerably more COH.

HI-2 Hirono margin increases slightly to 42.8 points.  Willoughby receives Palin’s phone of support.

Inouye maintains consistent Senate lead with a projected 32.6 point win over Cavasso.

Aloha friends and activists,

Previous report:  Primary, Fun With Numbers (Sep 25)

Today:  General Election Races to Watch

Election Day is a month away but voting begins before November.  Again, we are in the position of having to win something.  If you get your friends and neighbors and get out to vote, Rs will perform better than predicted.  Several races are interesting considering that we have 1/25 senators and 5/51 house members.  So far, we won one seat (HI-1) and gave up two (S25, H32).  Our challenged incumbents must win and we must pick up seats to simply break even.  Let me know why there are others to watch or send out your own list.

Friends and activists,  The polls closed one week ago.  This is my read on the primary election.

Gov.  Recalling six months of primaries, Abercrombie may be the only congressman to win a 2010 gubernatorial primary and he won big.  Anti-incumbent fever on the mainland caught the others.  I’m waiting for the next independent poll which should be more in Aiona’s favor.

Mayor.  The party failed to rally and GOTV, leadership failed to support and repubs failed to vote for the only candidate pledged to stopping the biggest money mistake in state history.  And, he was the only repub in the race.  Interestingly, Prevedouros rec’d 38k votes to Aiona’s 31k Oahu votes.

1. Dem conservatives (Sakamoto, Bunda) split their vote and progressive Schatz won big.  Repub King ran well enough (+ blank votes) to hold party & leadership-supported Finnegan to only 59% of the repub vote.