With so many close races, there will be changes before Tuesday.  It is the best time of the year (for wonks) and campaigners will miss it come Wednesday………except for recounts.  We make new friends during a campaign, many relationships which continue for years.  I hope you gained new experiences and friends this cycle.

As a part of one end-of-cycle report, I sent Part 1 on Monday focused mostly on national and top-of-ticket state races.  I give a necessary update in this report.  Thursday night, a long Part 2 went out focusing on state races and Campaign 101 things behind the scenes.  You’re deep into the campaign with your conservative or R candidate and this is information you may not have time to chase down.  I list the previous reports at the bottom.  Feel free to share these reports with other conservatives who may believe that they are alone in liberal Hawaii.

Unreal.  So much happening that I now split Part 2.  I’ll use a Subject line a little more innovative than “Part 3.”  Data today, HRP and my predictions tomorrow.

There were too many notes for one post so I sent Part 1 on Monday focused on national and top-of-ticket state races.  In three days since, the national scene has changed (most in our favor). Locally, we’re a little more down but still with margin of error.  Part 2 focuses on state races, mostly.  This is a summary of information that you couldn’t get while you concentrated on helping your conservative or R candidate.   I list the previous reports at the bottom.  No secrets, feel free to share this with other conservatives and tea people.

Scant days to go.  Races are tight.  Candidates’ are trying to not make a mistake and not be distracted.  Everyone must pull, regardless of your race, or everyone loses.

My previous reports are listed at the bottom.  By now, you’ve figured out whether you want to read on.

Too many notes for one post.  Part 1 focuses mostly on national and top-of-ticket state races.  Part 2 coming after Oct 25 CSC reports are posted (there are surprises, some pleasant).  Hopefully, this is new or different information which you don’t have because you are totally involved in getting your conservative or Republican elected.

35% of the votes in this election are already cast.  For remaining conservative voters, closely consider your candidate’s positions.  Some folks got surprised, or are disappointed, by office holders we thought were conservative.  I’ve watched other states become dissatisfied with liberal Republicans and actually do something about it.  You are certainly NOT voting for the D.  Vote and support, or not, after you CAREFULLY study and understand positions on the economy, education, life, Akaka, civil unions and taxes so that you are informed.

Djou closing.  Remember when I predicted (guessed) a one point win, either way?  fivethirtynine update has HI-1 Djou closing from 2.9 (Oct 8) to 1.3 points behind Hanabusa who has a 56.7% chance of win, down from 63.5.  Projection for Nov 2 is a Hanabusa 1.2 point win.  Their predictions are historically very good but I say (they heavily weight the left-leaning PPP poll) that Djou is in better shape than they predict.  Ouch, 3Q numbers are out and Hanabusa outraised Djou (again) and has considerably more COH.

HI-2 Hirono margin increases slightly to 42.8 points.  Willoughby receives Palin’s phone of support.

Inouye maintains consistent Senate lead with a projected 32.6 point win over Cavasso.

Aloha friends and activists,

Previous report:  Primary, Fun With Numbers (Sep 25)

Today:  General Election Races to Watch

Election Day is a month away but voting begins before November.  Again, we are in the position of having to win something.  If you get your friends and neighbors and get out to vote, Rs will perform better than predicted.  Several races are interesting considering that we have 1/25 senators and 5/51 house members.  So far, we won one seat (HI-1) and gave up two (S25, H32).  Our challenged incumbents must win and we must pick up seats to simply break even.  Let me know why there are others to watch or send out your own list.