Feel It?

We’re going to win.

Aloha Friends, welcome back. There is always a lot to report. Take some time with the information. I apologize for not making time to break this into two parts.

I write periodically to Republicans and conservatives, mostly in Hawaii. These reports augment what you should hear from the Republican Party. My perspective is that of conservative Republican, former State Party Chairman and Vice Chairman and member of the RNC, who campaigns here and on the mainland. I try to write ‘stuff’ you don’t have on your radar or don’t have time to research.  Nothing personal – perceived favorable or unfavorable – in my comments. I encourage discussion to increase conservative action in Hawaii. We won’t always agree but we should be informed. Let me know if you want to be removed and I will do my best to find and delete your email address. Similarly, please feel free to forward this report to other conservatives and they can write to get on the list. Conservatives need to know that they are not alone in Hawaii.

If you have 10 minutes to read this, then you have an hour to support a candidate or five minutes to drop a candidate check in the mail.  Please make that commitment.

I email rather than blog because this is a (quasi-) private discussion. Like the dozens of daily national updates we receive each day, these reports are long because there is something for every reader. The usual format is to write about issues and activities involving our cause in Hawaii. From RNC meetings or a Conference, I report chronologically. My previous five reports are listed at the bottom.

Today is 18 days until the General Election. We are early and absentee voting across the nation. Hawaii absentee ballots are in your mailbox.

We have some local candidates working hard. Focus on the winnable races.  That’s all.  Obama is on the ticket, there are no guaranteed wins.

Fundamentals. Hint to House leader Ward who already lost three incumbents, First is to return our remaining caucus members.  First things, first – return Slom to the Senate.  Eat and drink at sunset with Sam Slom at Roy’s on Saturday (tomorrow) at 5:30.  Tickets $125 with marian243@hawaiiantel.net or http://samslom.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/DonationForm.pdf

Posting for a friend because “HRP published the incorrect date.”  Women for Romney (through the https://TheKitchenCabinet.us group) sign waves at the Capitol this afternoon (Friday). Giles 778-8386.  My hope, repeatedly made clear, is that as many women spend as much or more time calling to target states.

Tomorrow, March for Religious Freedom.  A national, federal thing, hence, Kuhio Bldg 1p-2.  Roco 721-9845.  Then, get a phone and call a battleground state.

I mentioned that you want to be at the Friends of the NRA annual dinner on November 11 but I couldn’t say why.  NRA President Keene is the first sitting NRA President to visit Hawaii.  Dawnhorn@hawaii.rr.com for details and $50 tickets, you can’t just ‘show up’ on the Marine Base. First, we needed a reason for the NRA to visit and FNRA Horn decisively took the lead.  I asked other organizations to participate.  On short notice, conservatives and HRP members came through.  Thank you. This initiative convinced Keene to come to HI (November weather helps).  More than ‘just’ NRA, Keene was President of American Conservative Union (ACU) – think of the Washington DC annual four-day CPAC – for 25 years.  Sometime I’ll tell you about the guy who thought himself too important to respond (I’m sure it will work out).

Republicans for Life meet on November 13, December 11, January 8.  Skaf/White/Smart/Kellam do the heavy lifting but you have to attend this conservative effort or it will fade away. jacquelyn.skaf@gmail.com.  Another good message and fellowship this month.  H11 Fontaine says he had 100 signs stolen (hmm?).  When he referred to our opponents as enemies, it gave an idea where his head is.  Only H47 Fale is consistently disrespectful of our (and the keynote speaker’s) time and that will probably end following election time.

Conservative? Contact Smart at mghsmart@yahoo.com “I have agreed to help coordinate a grassroots effort in Hawaii as part of the Patriot Voices organization. There are many aspects of this group but our initial mission is to elect the Presidential candidate who will protect our religious liberty — which means we must replace the incumbent …”  http://www.patriotvoices.com/

Another visit for conservatives, of the TEA flavor coming in early January.  They’ll announce when they are ready to announce.

From the Big Island. “I’m expecting a win from Bateman. I think [Smith] can actually pull off a win…”

Windward Oahu Democrat: “I was pleasantly surprised to see Thielen (R) going door to door in Kailua asking residents to vote for Thielen (D).”

Kauai S8 Georgi “In spite of [my] stalled fundraising and limited funds,…..”

Meyer S23 www.colleenmeyer.com passed on some unbelievably great poll numbers against Hee. I don’t know who commissioned or conducted the poll.

More HNL Council 1 as (1) Pine, she can’t be trusted, contends Berg should be ousted NOW and (2) Berg (never know which Berg will show up) argues Pines hasn’t, and probably won’t, do anything.  Ryan took Berg to Campaign Spending (CSC) ‘court.’  Deferring the bulk of the case, CSC fined Berg for not claiming some old donated tshirts on his finance report.  Seriously?  Watching the cases of water, home-funded signage & shirts, donated office space, and supplies that show up at a campaign … and they fine one candidate for old tshirts?  CSC would have less problems if the commission got their heads out of … the weeds.

A reader, on Cayetano: “I’ve been watching the latest ads and efforts against Cayatano by the pro-rail folks, and I am struck by the trajectory towards increasing

virulence,distortion and lies. The vector is important, as it points both to the direction of desperation and the acceleration of magnitude (money/intensity/deals & extortion and other dirty efforts)… So why now? Because $5-10 Billion is at stake to them near term, not just the usual power and lesser plunder. Watch out when the polls show a certainty of a Cayetano win. At that point look for them to become violent…” I’ll let you know if his next prediction comes true.

Both CB and SA blog list what they consider to be competitive races.  I agree, generally, with an important race here or there we see differently.  Go look.

http://www.hawaiireporter.com/recommendations-for-hawaii-voters-who-oppose-racial-separatism-u-s-senate-u-s-house-5-oha-seats-state-legislature/123 for Conklin’s OHA picks from an anti-Akaka Bill perspective

It was previously ‘suggested’ that the Executive and County committees do something. They aren’t doing their elected jobs, so they could at least assist candidates on the ground.  Chang responds in his weekly newsletter “My team has been hard at work sign waving, making calls, speaking to coalitions, and walking door to door for the HRP candidates.” HRP scheduled a canvas for this weekend (on Oahu, of course).  Please tell me if any of them actually participate.  (We used to do two or three canvas sessions a weekend in addition to our party responsibilities).

With no resources, HRP used their newsletter “Candidate highlight” for S8 Georgi?  Sure, but how about Johanson, Hapai, Bateman, McDermott, Couch, Smith? Each have organizations, have been working harder and have a chance to win.  Focus!

HRP.  End of September FEC report www.fec.gov.  Chang says he is ‘working day and night’ to raise money and apparently not getting help from Hellriech and Liu.  For September, HRP raised $5,000 (and moved $4,500 from the state to the federal account) and disbursed (spent) $20,000HRP closed September with $121k COH and $61k debt (Previous month, $131k COH, 64k debt). Most of the 121k COH is the 60k+ from NRSC sources for Lingle, fenced funds for the mortgage, and RNC money for Blom salary.  We can’t tell if the three mainland fundraisers hired by Chang had success getting four companies to contribute $25k each (would be in the state account)!  A couple more State Cmte members are contributing to the Sustaining donor program!  Mortgage is a lower monthly payment.  Biggest expense is $3900 Blom salary and HQ CAM at $2720.  Also made minimum debt payments to five companies and added debt to one.

Recall when we reported the Dem Party raising more $ than HRP for the first time in 15 years or so?  We wondered where it would show up. Their first mailer was a CD1 I.E. piece supporting Obama-Hirono-Hanabusa.  HRP has no funds to match the D mailer.  I received the HRP mail appeal this week asking for funds for a GOTV program.  This highlights the problem of Chang having spent four months talking about the future, preparing for 2014, and building a ‘farm team’ for an election other than the one in 18 days.  Chang’s October 8 newsletter “Your generous contribution of $250 [and so on] will go far in identifying and training candidates…”  My family budget is tight, the ‘most important election’ ever is now, why would anyone contribute to HRP so Chang can prepare for 2014?

Take a minute.  Can you name your district or county chair, state or county vice chairs?  Time is up. I gave a minute to let you even find it on the website.  Consider this when folks suggest this team get a full two-year term.

Ready email “Laie & GOP HQ phone banks are up and running. [comment: Told you that the Laie Victory Center should move to CD1, and today Lingle’s campaign says her HQ is the Victory Center raising all sorts of FEC issues] I’ve tried the phones they are cool, you can make a LOT of calls fast. [Always the reaction from first-time VoIP users.] …. Policy is your volunteers do an hour for Lingle, then call an hour for your list, hour for hour …volunteers from your campaign, using your script, will thus call half their time for your campaign,…[No comment]  There are two other RNC people helping with canvassing. [one less than Chang thinks is here.]

A reader discussing HRP “Don’t they have to follow the rules?” Synopsis of my response: You must be a new reader.  HRP hasn’t followed their own rules, or has been outright breaking them, for a couple years. Started with Kaauwai with Nonaka then Chang/rules chair Thomason continued the trend to ignore or disregard rules which don’t suit them. Huge fights in the party and State Cmte.  Right though the NCM elections and caucus meetings and state convention this year. It has been in the HI media and to the RNC. Such is how it is.

Even after the warnings sent out about the HRP mail appeal which ‘seemingly’ required payment of enormous dues for party membership, one reader noted that she is so fed up with HRP that she hasn’t contributed since she paid her dues.  FYI – there are no HRP dues.

Read the Family Forum survey responses at http://www.hawaiifamilyforum.org/filemgmt/index.php?id=85 though it is again hard to read.  No excuse after the election when you find out that your candidate supports the Akaka Bill (Lingle, Djou, Crowley) or the repeal of DoMA (Lingle).  Some Republicans did NOT respond to the survey.  See the questions your candidate wouldn’t answer, indicating they are unprepared to take office or afraid to take a position.  Of those responding:  No R supports physician assisted suicide though Au H26 is undecided.  Rs support allowing hospitals an exemption from giving abortion medications except Russell H13, Hester H22, Butler H43, Higa H44 with no response from Muhlivile S6, Fenton S11, Kalama H12, Trujillo H16, Young H19, Thomson H23, Au, Murphy H46.  One more example, Rs NOT opposed (i.e. in favor or not answered) to a publicly-funded inter-island electric cable: Muhliville, Georgi, Fenton, Herrera S18, Meyer S23, Hapai H3, Kalama, Trujillo, Young, Hester H22, Thomson, Sabey H24, Ching H27, Johanson H31, Shimizu H32, Fukumoto (waawww) H36, Svrcina H37, Murphy, Fale H47, Vincent H51.

Then, go to Family Advocates www.hawaiifamilyadvocates.org.  They list who they endorse or find ‘acceptable.’  Hmmm: they endorse BOTH Mizuno D and Kaapu R in H28, and Gabbard D and Capelouto R in S20?  Ds are endorsed or more acceptable than the R: Green over LaFrance S3, Kouchi over Georgi, Choy over Thompson, Yamane over Svrcina, Cullen over Wong H39, Har over Capelouto H42, and Awana over Butler H43.  What did they do to be less conservative than their D opponent?  Neither candidate makes the grade in S6 Mulvihill/Baker, H12 Kalama/Yamishita, H22 Hester/Brower, or H46 Murphy/Oshiro.  What do you have to do to be bad as Baker or Oshiro?  Djou is ‘acceptable,’ Lingle and Crowley are neither endorsed nor acceptable. Examples of why one needs to ask questions when PACs ask for support:  Smith S2 is acceptable to Advocates but on his Forum survey is undecided on assisted suicide and a state constitutional amendment defining marriage. Advocates oppose candidates who do not oppose ‘tax and/or fee increases’ but did their only mail piece for Fukumoto (whimper) after she announced on Boylan that she is not a fiscal conservative and supports raising taxes (and gave an example).  Fale is endorsed though he doesn’t know if he would increase rental unit funding or support the undersea cable.  Har is unsure of her position on assisted suicide and supports all types of taxpayer fleecing and gets the nod over a more conservative Capelouto H42.

Advocates‘ is supporting ten House races. I suggested they focus on two rather than spreading assets and losing all ten. I thought that for ten races they had at least $80k. They raised only $8k, so far, and dropped the piece for Fukumoto (not crying about that). If they raise more, they plan to drop on another candidate. While several have a better chance to win than the Party chair’s wife, they should double down. In 2010 race, Say dropped five pieces into H18 alone for his D candidate (I received the first for Hasham from Citizens for Responsive Government and expect four more.)

Paychecks Hawaii endorsements, oriented towards support of small businesshttp://smartbusinesshawaii.com/index.php/news/article/candidates-2012/  On top of the list is Cayetano for HNL Mayor. Only one other non-R, independent Helm S7.  The list of endorsed candidates is shorter than the other way around.  Endorsements:  Lingle, Djou, Crowley.  Slom, Larson, Capelouto, Meyer and Hemmings in the Senate.  House includes Fontaine, Low, Allen, Au, Ching, Kaapu, Johanson, Fukumoto (last time, wah), McDermott, Capelouto, Cheape, and Fale.  NOT ENDORSED as a small business advocate is Smith, LaFrance, Muhliville, Georgi, Marshall, Fenton, Greco, Herrera, Johnson, Aki in the Senate races and in the House: Hapai, Bateman, Ebert, Martin, Russell, Trujillo, Ward*, Young, Hester, Thomson, Sabey, Shimizu, Kong, Svrcina, Wong, Reeder, Butler, Higa, Murphy, Thielen*, Vincent.  Whew. *no opponent

Next up.  Part of the HRP takeover of grassroots organizations.  The Oahu League December election is already ugly, on one side’s part.  You know I like this stuff, just isn’t appropriate for the OL.

Later.  I’ll tell you more about an effort led by Gowan.  http://goekona.wordpress.com/2012/10/ Gathering of Eagles Hawaii Chapter has for a couple years provided combat-deployed military units with Hawaii coffee, and refreshment and BBQ support to soldiers and Marines at Pahakuloa Training Area and now they work with the Wounded Warriors program.  They raise and contribute their own funds.  Mostly Republicans, mostly conservatives.  They have been recognized by squad leaders, company commanders and Brigade commanders and sergeants major.  A highlight for Gowan, Bateman, Toledo and May was being personally invited by the Commander to join in the 25th Infantry Division Change of Command at Schofield Barracks.  Gowan, Hobson, Lamb provide much of the chapter coordination.

In ’02 and ’06, HRP and Lingle worked together on the final GOTV operation.  Going on her own this year, i.e. all of you are on your own, HRP vice Ready’s October 12 email “Lingle campaign is not authorizing your poll watchers, but is mounting a major poll watching effort Statewide…” HRP is still ‘setting up’ poll watcher training.

Indicators. No committee money, Super PAC involvement, or national polling. For the first time, Lingle got outraised (ever?). Last quarter, Hirono raised more than $1.2M to Lingle’s 823k. Media didn’t note the significance. Even with large paychecks going to a large staff of friends, Lingle leads in COH 1.1M to 869k. With about 5.5M raised, Hellriech (her) won’t come close to the 10M goal and will miss her downgraded 8M goal (and she never did that promised HRP Capital Campaign event).  Some of the $ difference is made up by US Chamber of Commerce spending 1M on Lingle compared to Hirono outside groups spending 435k (from a CB article). HRP, for Lingle, received about $92k this cycle from NRSC or their affiliates.  When Romney wins, Lingle will have run a good enough race to get a cabinet position. RCP moved HI Senate to Likely D.

Breaking – Lingle internal says 47 Hirono, 43 Lingle!!!  Lingle pollster criticizes CB poll (Lingle down 16) and says that the debates help Lingle.  The debates do point out how intelligence-challenged Hirono is and how liberal Lingle is.  I haven’t seen viewer numbers of the Senate debates and I doubt there are many undecided voters moving between these two candidates.  However, (1) Lingle’s release draws resources from races we are likely to win and (2) if Lingle’s numbers are accurate, there will be a TON (as in “you will not believe what is about to happen”) of national money and activity here by the time you read this. Cillizza (WaPO) on Lingle “It’s rarely a good sign when candidates release internal polls showing them losing.” A concern for Lingle has to be that her August 27 eblast announced “MEMO: We’re head” by 6 (i.e. a 10 point drop).

SA Depledge noted the 180 turn when Lingle accepted Young’s (Rep, AK) endorsement after last month Lingle manager Lee called Young “one of the House of Representatives’s most controversial members, ,…. criticized on a range of ethics and spending issues,…” http://blogs.starbulleting.com/inpolitics

Majority PAC (D) spending $8.4M in the nine most competitive Senate races – MO, MT, ND, VA, OH, CT, AZ, IN, NV (not HI). The day prior Crossroads GPS (conservative) launched $5M into seven senate races (not HI).

Hanabusa received $216k for the quarter to Djou’s 178k. Djou leads in COH 431k to 396k. Hanabusa’s controversial personal loans are under scrutiny. For the cycle, Hanabusa received 1.1M and Djou raised 573k.  Attend Djou rallies on October 24 Kapolei HS 6-7:30p, October 29 Mililani HS 6-7:30p, October 30 Kalakaua MS 6-8p, November 1 Kalani HS 6-7:30p. www.djou.com

Not surprising, but still. Gabbard hauls in $510k for the quarter.

NRCC (Rep) spends $6M in 16 House districts (not HI).

Last week, AFL-CIO dropped a half-million mail pieces on 26 House, six Senate, two Gov races and 46 state-level races. (not HI)

Don’t wait for the past-the-last minute notice from HRP or Romney Hawaii about a debate watching party. You had 90 minutes notice for the first, five hours for the next. It is clear they are going to have watch parties and it is clear they are going to forget to remind you. I like that Blom combines parties with phone banking.

Romney Hawaii predicts enormous voter turnoutThat would be good for Hawaii.  Romney Hawaii vote goal is 250,000, double McCain’s anemic numbers. Obama got 325,000 votes, so they must expect his numbers to drop by 75,000 votes.  Bucking the trend, they expect voter numbers to go up a lot because there are more registered however, most folks project that turnout will be lower than the ’08 hopey-changey go around.  Romney Hawaii needs 130,001 new voters and hopes 75,000 Obama voters stay home or they need to change 105,000 Obama votes to Romney. I’ll bite.  Register new voters, do grassroots in each precinct, voter ID, and GOTV.  Simple.  Romney Hawaii says with 18 days to go they have 40 (of 257) precinct chairs, volunteer at fritz@hawaii.rr.com.  The effort by a few Romney Hawaii members is admirable and should be appreciated by the Romney Hawaii leadership team.  Now, you have another reason that I suggest using limited assets to win a battleground state rather than… Hey, I would love Romney to win Hawaii but it is past time to FOCUS.  No national polling, CB has Hawaii at Obama +32, Silver estimates Obama +33.7.

Want to know who is winning the debates?  Look at the battleground polls.  The numbers are favorably changing, so much so that the liberal Dem-loving media are even forced to mention the change.  Romney-Ryan is winning the debates.  Remember, they are trying to influence only about 3M undecided voters in 7-8 states.

Sabato, for instance, has FL lean Romney and VA moves to toss-up.  Yesterday, he moved WI to toss-up.  However, he has the Ds keeping the Senate 52-48 and Rs losing seven seats but keeping the House 235-200.

Of polls, with respect to our legal friends, Rasmussen: “60% Say There Are Too Many Lawyers in the U.S.”  The other 40% probably are the lawyers.

Romney Political Director Beeson (We brought him here for LDD ’09 keynote speaker as RNC Political Director).  “We are grateful for the nearly 98,000 people who’ve already given their time — knocking on over 6 million doors and making over 35 million voter contacts. … Please pledge to volunteer 25 hours, make 25 phone calls, knock on 25 doors, or give $25.” (my emphasis) If anyone knows, please send me our contribution of phone calls for the Romney-Ryan campaign.

Colorado University profs have predicted correctly since 1980, including the Bush win decided by the Supreme Court (and they correctly predicted Bush would lose that popular vote).  2012 = Romney romp.  I’m, today, predicting a “very close blow-out.”  Yes, that sounds politicky.  Romney will win the bground states he needs to win by less than 2 points across the board.  Winning all of them results in a big Romney win.  A very close blow-out. That’s today. Ask again tomorrow, after you make bground state phone calls.

I have friends deployed for Romney into target states. In ’09 the RNC deployed me to VA for the governor’s race. We don’t usually deploy from HI but I was on the east coast and they paid for the rest. Helped run the Alexandria/Arlington Victory Center (like HI, in our case we were trying to get 40% of the vote to blunt the Northern VA D advantage.  We did, McDonnell won). This year, RNC friends organized their own deployments, separate from the RNC program. The TX NCM has four bus loads, at last count, living in hotels in OH.  AL NCM took AL to VA.  NM Rs with Gov Martinez and other deployed’s are in NV where Kessler writes “I’m told these out-of-state reinforcements are going to be knocking 100,000 doors per weekend statewide.”  Heck, my mother-in-law in VA is calling for Romney and was this week making calls to FL.

Final responsibility.  Read http://oahuleague.org/everything-political-this-is-it what you MUST do before nightfall on November 6.  I have enjoyed analyzing, teaching and writing for the Oahu League of Republican Woman newsletter and website (yes, men can join).  In simple and understandable terms (unlike these reports), I broke down the election process, our candidates and their races.  Thank you to OL President King and the Board for having the foresight to begin providing political information to members of HRP’s primary partner.  If this innovative (for OL) technique continues, I look forward to passing my notes to the next writer.

Keep Garret in your prayers this weekend and for his recovery from ‘no big deal.’

Choose a race and please get involved.  Go, win. Have a great election!

 

Willes

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Last five: We Have a Month x2/ It Is Political(2 sections)/ Tampa 2012(4 reports)/ Game On, Ia&b and II/ May Special Report