Djou – Remember when? Update

Djou closing.  Remember when I predicted (guessed) a one point win, either way?  fivethirtynine update has HI-1 Djou closing from 2.9 (Oct 8) to 1.3 points behind Hanabusa who has a 56.7% chance of win, down from 63.5.  Projection for Nov 2 is a Hanabusa 1.2 point win.  Their predictions are historically very good but I say (they heavily weight the left-leaning PPP poll) that Djou is in better shape than they predict.  Ouch, 3Q numbers are out and Hanabusa outraised Djou (again) and has considerably more COH.

HI-2 Hirono margin increases slightly to 42.8 points.  Willoughby receives Palin’s phone of support.

Inouye maintains consistent Senate lead with a projected 32.6 point win over Cavasso.

Consistent Abercrombie lead in polls (unlike HI-1 which flips depending on the poll) drops from Oct 5 11.2 point lead to an Oct 12 5.2 lead.  Abercrombie chance of win drops from 91.1% to 80.7.  Projection for Nov 2 is Abercrombie by 5.2 points.  DGA spending for Abercrombie means they’re worried about his shrinking lead.  RGA has lots of $ (1/3M) already in HI for Aiona (helps down-ticket) and, after an unreal 3Q, has much more to spend.

Overall Rs net pick up

6 Senators up to 48R versus 52 D/I, 49 House (easily winning the House majority), 7 Gov up to 30 R govs.

I think more like five Senate for certain with one more probable (IL) and one more very possible (CO) and one possible (NV).  40 House with four more probable and one more (HI-1) very possible.  Seven Gov with two more very possible (FL & OR) and one possible (HI).  In another case of “money isn’t everything, as long as you have it:”  Outside R-supporting orgs (especially American Crossroads/ Crossroads GPS) are considerably increasing seats in play.  DNC, DSCC and DCCC have big $ advantage over counterparts so House/Senate numbers won’t change much (unless that wave thing occurs).  RGA huge, really huge, $ advantage may give more R gov pick ups, including HI.

17 days to go.  In the next six days in Hawaii, 25-30% of all ballots to be cast in the election will be cast by absentee mail in.  Go ‘Bows.





Primary Election – Fun with Numbers

Races to Watch