With so many close races, there will be changes before Tuesday. It is the best time of the year (for wonks) and campaigners will miss it come Wednesday………except for recounts. We make new friends during a campaign, many relationships which continue for years. I hope you gained new experiences and friends this cycle.
As a part of one end-of-cycle report, I sent Part 1 on Monday focused mostly on national and top-of-ticket state races. I give a necessary update in this report. Thursday night, a long Part 2 went out focusing on state races and Campaign 101 things behind the scenes. You’re deep into the campaign with your conservative or R candidate and this is information you may not have time to chase down. I list the previous reports at the bottom. Feel free to share these reports with other conservatives who may believe that they are alone in liberal Hawaii.
Those in close races are trying to not make mistakes. Leaders are trying to look like they already won, and trailers are nervously trying to appear confident. Your campaign teams must push for three more days, regardless, or everyone loses.
We watch the percentage of AB and AB walk in votes increase each cycle. By Saturday evening when the AB walk in closes, 46-48% of votes are cast. Kauai passed 50% last election and Honolulu registrar is predicting 50% this time. Your campaign must focus on the remaining 50% but can do so only if they previously identified their voters and if they have an idea who voted AB.
Last word on national and top-of ticket races:
House. Sabato now predicts +55. Playbook is +59. fivethirtyeight says +53. Cook says 48-60 or more. Rothenberg says 55-65 and 70+ is possible. I’ll take any of those predictions. I’m going +50 net with +3 more possible. That’s +3 since Monday’s report. Margin of error is immaterial for HI-1. This race is tight. Hanabusa has a nominal 2.4 point lead and 63% chance of winning but polls keep flipping. Though I disagree with some of his positions, including Akaka Bill, Djou stepped up to the conservative plate and called for an Akaka Bill plebiscite, should it even make it back from the Senate. It is the right thing to do and it takes guts to stand on principle. Making such a bold move, more obvious because Aiona did not, should earn Djou support of the pro-United States (anti-Akaka) groups. HI-2 Willoughby is down many points to Hirono and we expect to see him take what he’s learned and bring his message to challenge again in ’12.
Senate. Holding at +8, some say +9. GOP hoping for WA (tied) to off-set a loss, maybe, in AK though Murkowski says she’ll caucus with Rs (love to see that first caucus meeting). I am not predicting a NV win but it would be huge (historical) to do so. Cavasso got national recognition by closing to -13 points. Against all odds, Cavasso again put his name, family and life on the line for us.
Governor. +7, with +3 more very possible. Aiona/F is -7, outside the margin of error, giving Abercrombie/S a 90% chance to win. Need a game changer. Aiona/F says their polls have them tied at 44-45. Perhaps reminding the state that Abercrombie has socialism all over him would help. Whatever. Do something.
Brace for it. HRP had trouble raising money this cycle, even with Lingle finally making personal calls, contributing the 25k max from her campaign cmte and she got RGA to max out. They also had a lot of NRCC money. “The Democratic Party of Hawaii ….collected $145,175 since the primary…..” “The Hawaii Republican Party, meanwhile, reported just $42,158 ….since the primary.” Not enough $ to support a statewide race. NRCC needs to help get Djou over the top. HRP needs to begin to focus on local races that can still win.
Feedback on Part 2. You can send comments or your thoughts about which races will succeed. Some of comments rec’d: (1) go Republicans, or that theme. (2) it was not the economy or the Ds that made it hard for candidates to raise money. HRP favoritism – providing donors to favored candidates and steering donors from candidates – tainted the effort. (3) D12 Rinaldi is endorsed by the NRA, they inadvertently left that off their list. (4) BoE disagreement comes to ‘It is so screwed up that the fix to the elective process is to scrap the elective process.”
We started with a gov, HI-1, 2 senate, 6 house. So, with all the campaigning, we have:
Early this week, and they say they have polling to back it, HRP predicted we win HI-1, 4 Senate and 10 House seats (to go with the three freebies). This is great news. They believe S8 Slom, H27 Ching and H43 Pine join Marumoto, Ward and Thielen. Checking CSC for where HRP and Lingle’s campaign put their money, you can tell who they expect to win. Senate: HRP and Lingle campaign targeted S25 Enos (Djou supported S20 Montes) before the Oct 18 report closeout. My guess to make their four predicted seats is S20 Montes and S24 Bean, joining Slom and Enos.
For the House: HRP and Lingle money targeted H18 Baron, H32 Johanson (Finnegan’s old seat), H42 Berg, H45 Meyers, H46 Riviere, and H47 Fale and they are looking for wins in H4 Hapai (who has the most odd CSC report) and H28 Chang.
We end up with a Congressional seat, 4 Senate and 13 House seats! Their polling has Gov and 8 House more tied. If we split the tied races, we have a total of 17 House seats. They have a new category of “Thank you, candidate, but in your district it was a bad GOP year or you had a tough incumbent.” My comment about that: “No comment.”
Another HRP watcher provides: who I think/know is leading Leau, Baron, Chang, Fale, Fukumoto, Meyers, Enos, Berg. Next are tied White, Sabey, Reviere, Montes, Fontaine, Hapai, Bean, Shimizu, Shiraki. Good list of mostly good candidates. And he (or she) includes “thanks for running but bad time to run as GOP or Democrat too strong” Katz, Wolfgramm, Harding, Yagao.
Predicting (ok, guessing) the election of S8 Slom, H18 Baron, H32 Johanson, H27 Ching and H43 Pine. These are not the only Rs that I’d like to see win. A few have done a great job and even more did a good job. It is tough. A few CSC reports are encouraging. If Aiona successfully counters Transformation (still all over the Internet) and this latest downturn in the polls then the down-ticket effect brings four more house (4, 11, 28, 46) and a senate seat (25). All races are important but, if we lose Slom, we are the laughing stock of the nation with 0/25 senators (we have the fewest R senators except NE …. which is unicameral). Don’t see this often on our side: leadership. Pine looks like a caucus leader, in the field, raising money, organizing newer candidates on the Ewa side.
A wrap on this cycle: GOTV prep and on Tuesday is crucial. I hope Rs win. Yes, I prefer conservatives. Kudo’s to candidates and their teams who pour out their hearts (those who did so) to make Hawaii better. We have some great candidates (great people) this year and I hope many stay involved. I believe we have a big tent. I am glad to write of things conservative to give an opposing opinion to the liberal R voices.
ICYMI – Speaking of Duke, I’m happy that Duke University Basketball is the consensus pre-season #1. Just had to get that in.
Finally, I mention this to our incumbents each year, most often to no avail, so I’ll close with this comment that a D leader made several times this year, “DCCC Chair Van Hollen said not all of the incumbents he’s trying to save were prepared for the current environment.” A hint to those who make it this year. On Nov 3, get ready for 2012.
Early voting through tomorrow. Election day is Tuesday. Good luck.
Last minute (week) tidbits, for conservatives, part 2
Last minute (week) tidbits, for conservatives, part 1
Djou – Remember When? Update
Races to Watch
Primary Election – Fun With Numbers