Hawaii Republicans in the Spring, Part 3

Aloha Friends,

Last of this report! These reports to Republicans and conservatives are to initiate discussion. Others should write about your events, county activities, PACs, organizations or election plans.  We should be informed. You can tell why I want people to come to the State Convention and vote to help me lend experience and knowledge to our energetic leadership team. My previous three reports are listed below.

PART 3 (yes, of 3)

The RNC under Priebus is still rocking! By the end of January, the RNC had raised enough to eclipse the 24M debt left by Steele. This month $26.7M COH, 10.9M debt.

When we started our countdown there were only 500. Sunday = 217 days to the General Election. The Presidential race is here http://oahuleague.org/is-1144-an-important-number. Today, it looks like Romney as our nominee with the funding, organization and best poll numbers; though the others show no signs of dropping (they are making adjustments). Super PACs impact is here http://oahuleague.org/super-impact.

The RNC reports that Obama’s $ numbers are off and aides “are fretting” about the resistance from donors. Through February, Obama raised $118.8M.

Still predicting that Republicans hold the US House and win the US Senate. Snowe leaving and Kerry coming out of retirement doesn’t change the equation with Brown and Heller up in the polls, even though Allen took a recent hit in the polls. So far, TEA knocked out only Snowe and an incumbent Ohio House member.   TEA in Nebraska may change the dynamics of Kerry’s race.

Next RNC meeting is in April. I can’t make that Phoenix meeting because of Lincoln Dinner so I will not report as I did from the last several meetings. However, the Conservative Caucus is busy protecting our interests and conservative principles. The Conservative Steering Cmte is hosting Arpaio – on immigration, not birther.

In past national convention years, the HRP published information about the national convention so that delegates could prepare – when, where, estimated costs, who goes early, what type of events, suggested dress, potential lodging, registration fees, timing, questionnaires, security clearance, airfare and flight arrangements, expected weather.

We want Republicans winning seats. I support all Republicans running for state or national office. Our party needs to be in the absolute best possible campaign position for this election year. We understand the importance of the races this cycle. I am grateful that candidates step forward. We have great candidates competing for our Presidential nomination. All of us should be pleased that Lingle, Carroll, Djou and Roco (maybe a couple more soon, and another contacted me yesterday) chose to run to represent us in DC. As more state candidates come forward to join our incumbents, a solid team is forming (another about to announce called me today). This can be a good year for Hawaii Republicans.

Local-national. Djou is home safely! Prayers answered. At $300k+, Djou and Hanabusa are close in the money race. Hanabusa raised a lot more but has a high burn rate as she pays off old debt. CD2 Hannemann is clobbering Gabbard in the money race and the polls, no R candidate (yet). Lingle leads the Senate money race over Carroll, Hirono and Case, combined. She is down 20 points in one poll to either Dem opponent which is a stretch after being only six down in an earlier poll. It is too early to take horse race polls too seriously. Conservative Carroll’s call for a debate with Lingle has been ignored. Chang says a Republican CD2 candidate will ‘pop up’ (I know at least two say they are close to announcing and another may). Obama’s numbers in Hawaii can’t stay that high. Can they?

Chamber.   Lingle defended the Chamber of Commerce ad because it was not a mainland hit piece. It described her as bi-partisan. She needs the middle and left, figuring she has the right. Dems noticed that a photo is from Lingle’s ‘Palin’ speech. Mainland money? This was a $250,000 ad buy.

Bringing it home:

Want to make people angry? Cancel Limbaugh (KPUA) and see Big Island conservatives (and Republicans) take action!

Previous state party “Chief Strategist” Kay posted to FB that he left the HRP.

Another reason people are leaving the HRP:

Hi Willes, Thanx for your emails. I (and others) have lost all confidence in the Hawaii GOP as a path to conservative influence in our local/state government. It is too dysfunctional, hypocritical, lacks clarity/transparency, and above all accountability. Our few elected GOP politicians, with rare exception, are enablers of this dysfunction. The conventions are charades that do not allow any input from the ranks and file, no ability to formally and publicly question either our leadership, nor any of the supposed “GOP” elected politician. The “call for the question” ending debate on a closed primary at the last convention was a classic example, as was Brend Morioka’s refusal to explain to all party members the logic about his vote for National chairman. Ditto Miriam, although she at least was polite enough to answer my emails about such. I just got a heap of shit from Brannon. The state GOP is a waste of time and resources. Forward this widely. Aloha Ed

Democrat-like. Instead of cutting costs, make people pay more. We’re hearing that registration for the one-day State Convention will jump 50-100%. Let’s hope not, especially on the heels of LD. I again suggested (1) securing corporate sponsors to defray costs and (2) returning to a less expensive grassroots venue. Without SuperFerry, there are no good suggestions to defray the air travel costs.

Strategery.   HRP needs a fund raising strategy. Lincoln (less Day) Dinner less than a month before state convention causes members and donors especially from the neighbor islands to have to choose. Or, it disenfranchises them. It is more difficult to find convention sponsors when also trying to boost LD revenues with those same sponsors.

With the HQ mortgage covered by last summer’s Greenwood event, the Capital Campaign says there’ll be another event to lower the $168,000 principal.

Updated Numbers. Based on the February FEC and December (the latest) CSC reports, the HRP has probably $50k COH of which about $14k can be for operations and $102,000 of debt (down from last month). We’ll appear better as LD money comes in. www.fec.gov.

Rules call for a party budget to be presented for approval within a month of a chair election and in the final month of each calendar year.

Something’s up with the national committeeman election. In an email (a draft) sent by mistake only last Wednesday, Chang tells the state cmte that there will be an election at the April 7 meeting. Since, Chang and I are in an email exchange to determine a vote counter for a secret ballot vote. He has not told me there will be an election nor told me much of anything. He has not sent out an agenda or reminder of the meeting over Easter weekend nor explained why we would need a secret ballot if we’re not having an election. Our rules call for secret ballot only for a contested election. There has been no notice of a new election. In his Gapero/Figuieredo response, he wrote that he will rescind the January election. Regardless, we have not established a process for a secret ballot election and the state cmte or rules cmte, not individuals, should decide the election rules after careful consideration and discussion. That’s where we are as of today. We’ll see what happens.

The candidate filing period is finally open. Recruit a candidate!

 

Willes

 

Last three reports:

State of the Party

Buzz – RNC Winter Meeting, Days 1, 2, 3

The Holiday’s Caucuses and Candidates