Aloha Friends, welcome back. There is always a lot to report, hence, this quick report before the election.
One week to go. Get involved. Some local candidates are working hard. Focus on the winnable races. That’s all. Obama is on the ticket, there are no guaranteed wins.
East Oahu Monthly meeting 8:30 AM Saturday November 3 strategically three days before the election. Expect candidates to use the meeting to gather their teams and coordinate the waving and walking for Saturday and the final three days. firstname.lastname@example.org. East Oahu leaders with only 12 days until election finally received from Chang/Blom the email addresses from the March (29 weeks ago) Presidential caucus.
Friends of the NRA, November 11. email@example.com NRA President Keene (ACU President for 25 years before NRA) is the first sitting NRA officer to visit Hawaii. NRA members should already be signed up. “Hawaii Friends of NRA is the state affiliate of the NRA Foundation, a non-partisan, non-political, 501(c)3 charity focused on youth and adult firearms safety education, wildlife conservation, and range development. In Hawaii it was chartered by high school air rifle team members and it provides support for the school, scout, and Junior Olympic shooting sports programs, coach certification training, firearms safety education programs, and repair and improvement of school and public range facilities.” Keene also has meetings in Kona, a November 13 Hilo Conservative Forum event (firstname.lastname@example.org) and a November 14 Oahu event to be announced, in addition to business meetings.
Republicans for Life November 13 to celebrate Romney-Ryan’s win. email@example.com. Several events conflict though, headed for the 2013 legislative session, it is important to continue the momentum of this organization.
Dems give more notice and the Dem Party does things. From an October 18 web-posting: Oct 24 Democratic Party Rally with Sen. David Ige, Rep. K. Mark Takai, Rep. Gregg Takayama, and Rep. Roy Takumi. Waimalu Elementary School//Oct 27 Veterans Oahu lunch Democratic Party Rally, Disabled American, Honolulu//Oct 27 Maui Pau Hana Democratic Party Rally//Oct 28 Leeward Coast/Maili Democratic Party canvass & lunch, Maili//Nov 5 sign waving Hilo Democratic Party Grand Rally//Nov 6 Election Night Democratic Party-JCCH Joint Party at Japanese Cultural Center.
No one reported anyone from the State Executive or a county committee joining them for a canvas, sign wave, phone bank or any event which didn’t offer free food. I received a lot of feedback on the last two reports, no reports of ‘leadership’ participation. Not one showed with the Windward candidate I walked with a week ago. None – of the 20 on Oahu – attended the Republicans for Life meeting. None attended the ‘critical’ coordinated campaign conference call.
When conservatives come to town, HRP disappears. It happened with Palin’s skyped CD2 endorsement last cycle when Kaauwai/Nonaka at HRP refused to announce the event. OK, that’s Palin, very polarizing for some Republicans. This year it’s been Barton (WallBuilders) and soon Keene (NRA). HRP ‘leadership’ professes to be conservative then ‘misses’ supporting opportunities with conservatives but not with others; for example, Collins Senate ME, Cole OK-4.
Prevedouros’ two options for HNL Council 6 and distrust of Pine: “For District 6 there are two good choices to support Ben’s position on rail and bring fiscal sanity to City Council: Sam Aiona and May Mizuno. Also both Ann Kobayashi and Tom Berg should be re-elected to Council.” SA, unions and Aiona (17 point) endorse Pine in HNL Council 1, Prevedouros picks Berg. Trust Prevedouros.
With $9B on the line, an October Surprise, Honolulu version. Honolulu Weekly breaks the PRP story. Excerpt: “With regard to possible coordination in violation of CSC rules, “What I found interesting was that canvassers were also paid to hold signs or plant questions at rallies for a pro-rail candidate, such as Peter Carlisle or Kymberly Pine, or in support of the Hoopili development,” Hahn recalls. “They were also paid to shout down opposing views.” http://honoluluweekly.com/feature/2012/10/votes-lies-and-videotape/. Berg campaign email: PRP “has taken a liking to bash the Councilman with THREE “hit pieces” within the last 10 days and has found it worthy to spend tens of thousands of dollar from UNION MEMBER’S funds to push for the election of Kym Pine over Councilman Tom Berg.”
Nonaka’s polling for S23 Meyer has her “way ahead” [of Hee]. Last week, Aiona (the real one) was tied for second in HNL Council 6.
HRP misses the real historical nature of this cycle. SA October 22 ‘Hawaii’s Legislature became the nation’s most lopsided in 2010 [with HRP under Kaauwai/Nonaka], and no other state comes close to its single-Republican Senate.’ Not one of the HRP ‘leadership’ (Chang, Hellriech, Liu), vice chair (Fukumoto (wah), Ready, Ward, Coluccio, Dorn, Chow), staff (Blom) or county chair EVER spoke to Slom about support for his reelection.
HRP sent out some Absentee Ballot applications! That is good. Give credit for doing their job, though they waited until only two weeks before the election. Follow up phone calls should be this week.
Ballots this year have two state constitution and many county charter initiatives. HRP took a stand on…. exactly zero. Also, suggestions for anyone-but-the-D in races without an R were noticeably absent – S7 Helm against English, for example.
SA endorsements. Republicans shouldn’t tout their SA endorsement (only Pine did so) after denigrating SA as a liberal mouthpiece all year. Sort of like thinking a Sierra Club endorsement is a good thing.
S23 Meyer, formerly our only conservative House member writes “The Sierra Club: Just Another Political Special Interest Group Doing the Dirty Work for Power Brokers.” Sierra endorsed Republicans: H3 Hapai, H17 Ward, H27 Ching, H31 Johanson, H45 Cheape.
Caldwell is probably glad Hannemann waited until mid-October to give his endorsement. Similar to Aiona’s (17 point) endorsements, have to wonder why Hannemann waited so late and if it helps or hurts.
Aiona’s (17 point) endorsements were sent again, with even less detail, with an appeal for money. Pine (honesty issues), Fukumoto (not crying about this), Fale, Cheape, Fontaine. Pine (trust-challenged) and Fukumoto (whimper) are pro-rail, perhaps that is the similarity. Don’t know that an Aiona endorsement helps, especially on Maui (Aiona lost by 22). Candidates who Aiona’s does NOT endorse = the other 55 Republican candidates. Aiona didn’t ask us to vote for Lingle and Djou (just to not vote for H & H), didn’t mention Crowley. (Of note, instead of supporting Crowley – votes he gets would help Lingle and Romney – HRP chose instead to marginalize Crowley.)
Politically savvy. An Oahu League of Republican Woman member asked that her personal video of a Lingle speech to Republicans be posted on the OL website. Previous leadership would have naively posted it without thought. King (OL Pres) had the foresight to check and Lingle manger Lee asked the OL to not post the video.
Wasting time. Chang, Ready, Blom called a “Critical” coordinated campaign conference call Wednesday. Chang and Ready failed to attend (“Boyd, are you on the phone? Boyd? S**t. S**t.”). If the meeting is of so little value that the people who convene it do not attend, stop calling meetings. Good news is that Blom finished in 20 minutes, less if you subtract the five minute late start. What ‘leadership’ considered so important that couldn’t go out by email: Poll watchers deadline again extended. Training was finally scheduled – for Oahu – announced two whole days before the training. Blom had no details “about election day operations.” No mention of a legal team for election day. Blom announced an election party, at Lingle HQ [i.e. no Republicans at Republican Headquarters] “We” are walking this weekend, no details. November 1 gigantic rally [my comment, hope it is “giganticer” than Kaauwai/Nonaka’s 2010 gigantic rally which fizzled when few candidates and less volunteers/voters attended]. Noted by an attendee and blown off by Blom was that the Lingle-HRP rally conflicts with an announced Djou rally with real voters. Blom will find out with only two weeks to go about neighbor island GOTV phone bank operations that “maybe should be Linda Lingle but don’t know where or who.” Blom does not know with only two weeks to go which GOTV operations will be run out of Laie. For the 30 Executive and county cmtes members, 47 (of 51) assigned district chairs, and 55-60 candidates, there were six people on this ‘critical’ call, including Blom.
Campaign Spending reports were due yesterday. Earlier this year I told you of a project to make CSC reports more easily interpreted, and this is it and it will get better. https://brchawaii.com/influence/politician.php/. Thank you, Kuroiwa. Several of you without $ tell me, ‘money is not everything.’ Correct. “Money is not everything, as long as you have it.” Another quote “Money isn’t the most important thing in a campaign but it is way ahead of whatever is number two.”
HRP State Finance report. Chang says he is working ‘day and night’ and Chang/Liu/Hellriech raised only $2,400 (OMGosh) of state funds and disbursed $16,000 since August 11. $11,300 of the disbursements was a transfer to the federal account for mortgage and salary. $3,600 was Maui county cmte candidate contributions except for incumbent Couch (i.e. $3,600 more than other counties provided candidates). State account CoH on August 11 = $41k, on October 29 = $27k. Three mainland fund raisers Chang ‘hired’ haven’t yet ‘paid off,’ so to speak.
INDICATOR ALERT: HRP Federal Finance Report for October 1-17 is good, sort of. HRP raised only $6,500 (and transferred in $4k from the state account) while incurring $16,000 in operating expenses. However, HRP received $183k from the RNC (29.5k), another with Target State Victory Fund for Lingle ($63k), and NRCC for Djou ($81k) and spent $73k for Lingle rallies, Lingle & Djou micro-targeting data and a Djou mailer. October 17 CoH = $226k, with debt = $59k. Hawaii Dem party rec’d $38k from the DNC and more PAC $ in a few odd donations. i.e. some national money in Hawaii.
We noted party vice chair Fukumoto’s (tearful) non-existent Coordinated Campaign in June when every other state began Super Saturday events – walks and phone calls to register and ID voters. Friday, Blom announced the first HRP ‘Super Saturday,’ walking and calling to ID voters and GOTV. That’s good!! Less than 18 hours notice, no coordination with district chairs or candidates, no idea who if anyone would show up… that’s not so good. Three people showed up for HRP’s Sunday afternoon canvas, no member of the party ‘leadership.’
The D Party has a large canvassing program on each island leaving door hangers to complement the multiple mail pieces supporting their ticket. Received another of Say’s mail (Citizens for Responsive Government) for H18 Hashem. PRP drops against Cayetano, Ching and Aiona (the real one). PRP drops FOR Pine (even if they can’t trust her). Hawaii Solutions used a Marumoto retirement fundraiser to support several candidates. Family Advocates dropped a piece for Fukumoto (sobbing for more).
Chang’s debate analysis with a subtle distinction. “Governor Romney, Governor Lingle and former Congressman Djou all gave outstanding performances.” I don’t know what Chang is telling us by making Djou, the only one possibly to win in Hawaii, as a ‘former.’
Lind (of liberal blog) writes in CB of Political Patronage. Liu (HRP National committeeman), having been asked if he were a ‘moron or simply incompetent’ during a State Senate investigation about yet another improper DBEDT contract award is highlighted here http://www.civilbeat.com/articles/2012/10/24/17447-hawaii-monitor-patronage-games/, with Lingle giving favors. The article timing, two weeks before election, is noted.
Though Lingle was out raised by Hirono in a second consecutive finance report, $460k to $206k, Lingle is much more a debate smooth talker than is Hirono. Lingle’s first-time Senate run and co-chairmanship of the Romney Jewish coalition should gain her a Romney administration position. Often touting her own strength as an executive and her desire to NOT be a legislator, she is suited to a Washington cabinet position which will help her next Senate run.
Better be correct, or at least a little closer than last time. Aiona (17 point) eblast for Lingle says “We are in a dead heat.” If it is not true, no one is ever going to believe him again because that’s about verbatim what Aiona’s campaign said in 2010, before losing by 17 points. Last week, Lingle manager Lee said Lingle was down by four, this week tied. Yesterday’s SA poll has Lingle down by 22.
Chamber of Commerce. Almost $1/2M negative for Lingle on top of the $1.2M previous positive ad buys. A lot for a special interest group in Hawaii but only half what the carpenters with PRP are spending on ads against Cayetano. For perspective, CoC is forecast to spend $50M this cycle for candidates (goal = 100M). There is a correlation between receiving outside help and the volume of protest i.e. if a PAC helps you, you don’t complain about outside money and if you don’t get help, you do complain. Lingle is having it both ways by complaining about Hirono’s ads while having the Chamber of Commerce hit Hirono and simultaneously support Lingle.
Lingle and Djou won debates. I am not certain voters who matter watch (undecided or changeable). Djou believes being a parent is important and implies that he knows Hawaii better than Hanabusa… or Lingle. He beat Hanabusa on PBS with something like ‘Screw my party and what is important for America, I’ll do whatever I want.’ If Lingle and Djou don’t think Republican ideas are better than Dem ideas, why run as a Republican? Lingle and Djou assured voters that they will convince Republican peers to pass the Akaka Bill. Why does a party support candidates who disavow the party? Noted: PBS’s Boylan wrote in MidWeek that he is tired of debates, then took the Djou-Hanabusa night off while a, not unsurprisingly, unprepared Wilcox ‘moderated.’
Sabato moves the HI Senate and both House seats to Safe D.
Hawaii liberal media tells us that voter turnout is higher than the Primary (of course) or that of 2010. They didn’t compare it to hopey-changey ’08 so as to hide the decrease in Dem enthusiasm. Romney Hawaii says they registered several hundred voters.
Romney Hawaii women heed the ‘call.’ “We have been making calls to Las Vegas and Colorado this week. We will be turning to Ohio next. But we are not giving up on Hawaii.” firstname.lastname@example.org
One wrong (among others). For eight months I predicted VA would be where it all happened. Well, OH is again the center of the universe.
Most important election of your lifetime. Todd (MSNBC): 55% say who wins the presidential election will make a great deal of difference to their lives. That’s higher than in any other presidential election (2004, 1996, 1992) the NBC/WSJ poll has surveyed. The nation is split down the middle 48-48%. The overwhelming majority, 90+%, want one party in charge of the Presidency, Senate and House. Todd’s conclusion is that there will be a preponderance of straight-ticket voting which would help us in, say, NV where Heller could get Romney over the top but hurts in CT.
“We are at peace because my family knows God is in charge of every situation.” When the father of a killed SEAL spoke these words, you didn’t see the liberal media coming after him and his words.
Last appeal. There is no race we are guaranteed to win. It feels good to help all our candidates, you don’t want to hurt anyone’s feelings. And, focusing assets does not mean we’ll win a race. Not having the guts to focus our assets on potential winners, however, means we’ll lose. It is not personal. We’re part of a team. Every candidate and volunteer and donor is appreciated for their important and unique role in this election cycle. Leadership requires leaders. Focus. Focus on the possible.
Thank you each for a great, long, and fun election cycle and all the work you have contributed to elect conservatives and Republicans. I’ve been looking at this election since before the last Presidential election. Directly, this Presidential cycle began for me as the HRP State Party Chairman at HRP HQ as I prepared to walk out front and give Denby Fawcett comments on McCain’s 45 point loss to Obama in Hawaii. We now stand poised to win back America. Be proud of what we’ve accomplished.
Only 372 days to the 2013 General Elections.
My prayers are with those affected by Hurricane Sandy.
Choose a race. Go, win. Pray!
Last five: Feel It?/We Have a Month x2/ It Is Political(2 sections)/ Tampa 2012(4 reports)/ Game On, Ia&b and II