Aloha Friends. Welcome back. Good news in Part two of two.
The Primaries and looking to the General.
-Business-of-HRP background -Primary analysis
-General Election -Quick Hits
-September 6 East Oahu Republican monthly meeting Marian243@hawaiiantel.net
-September 18 HIRA Roadshow, Hawaii Kai www.hawaiirepublicanassembly.com
-September 26-28 Gun Rights Policy Conference, Chicago www.ccrkba.org
-September 26-28 Value Voters Summit, DC www.valuesvotersummit.org
-November 8 HIRA Veterans Day w/ NRA President www.hawaiirepublicanassembly.com
There are many strong and energy-filled conservatives and Republicans in Hawaii. Thank you.
-Sixty seconds to change what you think about Republicans in Hawaii, and the HRP. www.youtube.com/watch?v=OmBqdtrcMyk&feature=youtu.be
–HRP should message (if they had a message), bring voters to the party, and focus on winning elections. We again lose before the contest by not preparing year-round. Even with hundreds of thousands of dollars from the RNC, RGA, NRSC and NRCC, HRP can’t support local candidates and HRP electioneering is virtually non-existent.
-Synopsis: How HRP got in this fiscal hole and the inept effort to climb out. In 2009, then House leader Finnegan ushered in Kaauwai and Nonaka, who began with a $200,000 warchest from the previous administration (Two years earlier, I similarly inherited $100,000 from my predecessor, Aiona). The three exhausted YOUR donations, and their fundraising was 50% less than any of the previous ten years. One, of many, ‘questionable’ expenditures: Kaauwai hired Nonaka at almost double the previous Exec Dir’s salary… then Kaauwai moved his family into Nonaka’s rented Kailua home, rent-free. The RGA supported Aiona and RNCC did Djou with almost $1m but Kaauwai/Nonaka were unable to stay afloat. By the time Lingle and NCW Hellreich finally ordered your Executive Cmte (some of the same folks today) to boot them in 2011, HRP was in debt $40,000. Hellreich mentored Fukumoto, then Chang, to grow the debt to nearly $120,000. Even with 2012 NRSC money flowing for Lingle (vs Hirono), Chang spent HRP into more debt. Unable, and unwilling, to raise funds, Chang slashed – resources, training, infrastructure, assets, events, everything (except his mainland travel expenses) – to bring the debt to ONLY $25,000 for a destroyed Republican Party. Kaauwai, Nonaka, Fukumoto, and Chang were inept at the business side of running an organization. They freely spent other’s money (like a Democrat) and refused to put effort into raising funds. Neither Hellreich nor NCM Liu (Morioka during Kaauwai’s term) provided leadership. Hellreich, who (for Lingle) fired Kaauwai and then Chang, is the constant factor through this death spiral. April 2012, CB “Hawaii’s Republicans are in disarray once again, led by a revolving door of party chairs. Saiki is holding the job on a temporary basis.“
Today. Saiki fundraises better than Kaauwai, Fukumoto & Chang, combined, but likewise spends too much; only two of her four months are in the black. ‘Consultant’ Nonaka for another cycle sucks money from new candidates (Rs and Ds), and from locked-in incumbents by holding their contact lists, when he should spend the next decade repaying Hawaii Rs. Kaauwai, no longer lives in Nonaka’s rental, helps and donates to Fale’s race. Fukumoto is running for reelection. Chang’s long-term military deployment was debunked. Hellreich focuses on RNC work, not HRP responsibilities. HRP debt is still $15,000. Saiki changed (my suggestion) her plan to pay debt in two years by doubling payments. Yet, at the current rate, if she incurs no additional debt, HRP remains in debt until September 2015. That’s 60 months of not being able to message, support candidates or claim the mantle of fiscal responsibility – still under the dismal legacy of Kaauwai and Nonaka, Fukumoto and Chang. Saiki and Hellreich’s politically liberal bent will (continue to) prevent them from leading a campaign to expose liberals’ failures and gain the public’s trust. The $134,000 remaining HQ mortgage is a story to itself.
-Saiki in CB “Her political work began with her successful drive to create the first teachers’ union for Hawaii’s public school teachers.” “Saiki successfully urged the [HGEA] to create a new teachers chapter, which she led.” “Saiki told teachers to embrace the national unions..” “Saiki’s decision to become a Republican seems surprising..” “She supported abortion rights ..”
–Primary. Congratulations to our conservatives who move on to the General Election. Thank you all for running. Abercrombie makes history with largest loss by a sitting Governor (Hannemann kicking himself). HRP was wrong to suggest Rs cross-vote for Ige; would have been better to face Abercrombie. SA Aiona “doubled down on the piety be adding [pastor Ahu] as his running mate.” Ige’s 35.1 point win was the biggest surprise since Hirono destroyed Lingle by 25. Aiona and Djou pulling 90% is good. Cavasso only 59% of Rs in his third Senate run. Crowley faces Gabbard.
-Abercrombie, Solomon, Hanohano, Cabanilla, Hee; incumbents who lose. Kim, Anderson, Espero go back to their day jobs. Ahu beats Sutton. Fale bests Meyer. Religious conservative Kong lost twice as R, wins as a D. Theilen ahead of Hood. Aiona did not endorse Rs but he did three OHA nonpartisans, one goes to November. H41: Saiki made McDermott tell Jeremiah to drop out. He dropped. HRP recruited Wiggins. Jeremiah decided Saiki was dishonest and got back in. Jeremiah beats Wiggins.
-Hawaii again in record low numbers. OE Election Report “41.5% turnout. 47% Kauai, 43.4% Oahu, 37.5% Big Island, 33.1% Maui,.“ 43% at the polls, 56% by AB. 82% pulled a D ballot. Concerning: Aiona got 42.5k votes in his ‘10 primary, 41.3k this time though the # of reg voters increased and churches had their largest ever registration drive. Djou had 26k votes in 2012, 21k this time.
–Puna? www.hawaiireporter.com/hawaiis-remote-puna-area-will-play-big-role-in-picking-next-u-s-senator/123 Schatz and Hanabusa rec’d votes statewide so it wasn’t really left to Puna. Still, tongue-in-cheek in HR “Willes Lee, the [HIRA] national director, said, “It is unfortunate that the residents of Puna were hammered by the hurricane, but to think the most important race in Hawaii is to be decided by Puna is, to say the least ‘interesting.’ Can you imagine if this Senate race also determined the control of the U.S. Senate?” Dem politicians flew to Puna to assist (read, pander). Two R statewide candidates, also. With all the expense and attention, the two precincts = 37% turnout.
–Going forward. Saiki’s top and overriding priority was registering voters. Failing that, she and the candidates pushed GOTV to include begging Rs to NOT cross vote. Such low turnout – especially 33% on Maui (led by Fontaine) should call into question Saiki’s HRP, Counties’ and candidates’ GOTV effort.
September 2 = 63 days to General Election
-This cycle is ALL about winning the US Senate, focusing our effort on the winnable Senate races, and contributing and volunteering to those Senate races. Everything else is a distraction. Yet, a few local races could be won… ONLY if HRP and supporters focus on the 2-3 winnable races and others pull their weight in their respective race as part of the team effort.
-CB “Are Hawaii Democrats divided? Not at all, based on the turnout and enthusiasm expressed by party leaders and members at the traditional day-after Unity Breakfast.“ That may not be accurate. HRP forgot our traditional post-Primary HQ unity brunch so they scheduled…
-HRP’s “free” (another liberal word) rally at Kapiolani Park “expecting 500.” While Dems were sending relief to Puna, HRP candidates/teams (and about 60 attendees/tourists) attended instead of walking DtD or making calls. Why you need a plan – Aiona asks people to pay to rally with him at Aloha Stadium, and HRP drops in this ‘free’ event with Aiona less than a week before his event. Reminiscent of Hellreich killing February LDD with her January “Saiki” dinner event.
–Races. Gov (Toss Up): Ige vs Aiona vs Hannemann. Senate (Safe D): Schatz vs Cavasso (’10 loss by 51 points). CD1 (Cook Leans D): Takai (is a worse matchup than Kim) vs Djou. National Ds need this seat more than national Rs want it. Djou takes $1k from Republican Majority for Choice, dedicated to preserving access to abortion and federal funding for stem cell research, incl embryonic stem cell. CD2 (Safe D): Gabbard vs Crowley.
Watch, also. S23 Fale vs Riviere. H20 Say’s residency case. H22 Brower vs Grace. H27 Fowler vs Ohno. H36 Fukumoto vs Lee. H43 Awana vs Tupola. H45 Cheape vs Magaoay. H47 Fonoimoana vs Pouha. H48 Kukahiko vs Keohokalole. H50 Theilen vs Broman. H51 Lee vs Hikida. OHA Ahu Isa vs Trask.
–Help needed. Djou’s HQ opening lists Kubo as POC. Kubo is also HRP Victory Coordinator. She is also HRP Secretary. Also, HRP rally boss. That is a lot of ‘also’s.’ Parsons is Executive Director AND HRP Finance Director. That’s a BIG ‘and.’ Saiki ordered Yim, HRP Coalitions Vice Chair, to run the HRP phone bank volunteers. The Saiki/Hellreich team is shrinking, doubling (or tripling) up on duties. Volunteer at www.hawaiigop.com, 593-8180.
–Staff. Aiona’s finance report shows a governor’s campaign of volunteers, no paid staff. His support is from non-partisan Let’s Do This Hawaii anti-SSM group and RGA, not HRP. At RNC meeting, a staffer says ‘a mainland professional’ with RNC ground-game experience is joining Aiona’s team. RNC likely to support to Aiona (RGA already did an ad) pending (my suggestion) campaign metrics. “The [RGA] is out of the gate in Arizona,“ the morning after their Primary. Not so Hawaii, yet.
-Aiona vote goal of 250k is a steep climb in a three-way race considering Aiona/Finnegan received 157k last time, and Abercrombie won with 223k. Many D votes were against Abercrombie, not FOR Ige. They stay at home or vote for one of three. Add Abercrombie die-hards who stay at home or vote not FOR Aiona but against Ige. That is Aiona’s opportunity. www.dukeaiona.com.
-Djou’s path. 64% of all who voted in HI-1 did NOT vote for Takai. The losers’ (Kim, Chang, Anderson) supporters believe it easier to beat Djou in 2016 than an incumbent Takai. They stay at home or vote not for Djou but against Takai. This is Djou’s opportunity. www.djou.com.
–Unfortunately, no path for Cavasso or Crowley.
-August 29 CSC reports have candidates’ CoH into the General. See it here next month.
-I don’t necessarily agree with ALL our readers: “I guess we’re making a comeback from the disastrous past two years.” Cleveland for RNC Convention “Hey….don’t dis Cleveland!!! It really does rock. 🙂 Just kidding. We joke about Cleveland, too.“ “Thank you for the reminder. I will send Sam Aiona some money.“ “It’d be great if there were something akin to an HRP town hall meeting where we could express concerns (e.g. the Berube fiasco, lack of adherence to HRP rules, Rohlfing’s dalliance with Mufi, the web site, etc…) in an open forum.“ From Maui “Tonight I saw my very FIRST “Aiona” sign on an obscure roadside.“ “I was offended by an email that I received from Elwin Ahu.“ From Kauai “There are many Aiona and Cavasso banners.” Candidate Svrcina “YOU will decide YOUR future based on your actions during this upcoming election cycle.“ “Not sure the Republicans will be voting. Many are fed up with HRP!“
-HRP website facelift. No LLIFE(!!). 2014 resos from the MAY convention promised ‘soon,’ no mention of the resos since 2009. No district chairs list, no contact info for county organizations or officers, one vice chair position STILL vacant, one at least twenty year-old photo, News is pre-primary July 24 release. No events on Event calendar.
-Political Party in Name Only. Reader “Sounds like Hawaii. PPINO & RINO combined! Sad to be here.“ TWT Hallow pens during the RNC meeting www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/aug/6/angry-republican-leaders-ready-to-shut-door-on-ope/
-If you didn’t read about our candidates here, or from HIRA, or see them at church-sponsored forums you wouldn’t hear of them at all. Ask HRP to begin telling us (honestly) who are our candidates, why they are running and what are their platforms (in the absence of a party platform).
–Conservative candidates continue to tell how HRP stymies their campaigns. Saiki in CB “Believe me, we are a unified party.” Uh huh.
-Enjoyed signwaving with Grace’s great Waikiki team. Contribute www.graceforwaikiki.com
-HNL County attempts to list activities http://goo.gl/UdRPU2. Note the candidates they do NOT list.
-Why you don’t like the direction of Hawaii, Republicans http://hawaiiindependent.net/story/when-voting-think-about-the-coalitions
-Jones, MidWeek “My crystal ball sees a Democratic governor and heavily tilted Democratic state House and Senate (the GOP did not seriously contest many races).“
–Nago, Office of Elections fails again. Why is he still there?
-Much discussion, local and national, about crappy Hawaii polling, and lack thereof.
–Common Core is THE 2014 grassroots issue. While Lingle stumps FOR Common Core, neither Djou nor Aiona give their position. Conservative Jindal “filed a lawsuit in Federal Court arguing that the Obama Administration’s … “Common Core” violates the 10th Amendment.“
-Erickson, RedState Gathering, “A Republican ‘strategist’ is a consultant with an agenda.”
-We want more of WSJ Jason Riley.
–Boston, in concert, Wolftrap. A fun evening in an election year.
–Libertarians and marriage. www.eagleforum.org/publications/column/faulty-ideas-marriage.html
-We’re in a World War, Obama just can’t see it.
-Navy Exchange directs base hotels to remove Bibles from the rooms.
–Prager makes the Mideast understandable. www.youtube.com/watch?v=ngFYOLOkmaI
-Hearing this more: “I want Netanyahu to be our President.”
-“Boehner raised more than $43 million for accounts under his control and tens of millions more to help Republican allies. Boehner has written $18 million in checks to the [NRCC], about 1/5 of its collection. He is spending August recess on a 14-state bus tour .. at events for 20 Republican candidates.” Dem leaders do the same. For years, I’ve asked local R legislative ‘leaders’ to organize respective PACs, to no avail.
–NRA protects your 2nd Amendment (gun) rights only if you support NRA. Join www.nra.org
-Chess champ Kasparov at CATO “If guys like Obama and Cameron had been in power in the ’80s, I would still be playing chess for the Soviet Union,” He observed that “Reagan had two things more recent free world leaders lack: principles and the credibility only principles can provide.
ARE YOU SATISFIED? HRP needs leadership focused on HRP.
Last five: Primary/ Changes/ Convention/ Meetings/ Relevance. Not my posting but tells the real story = HRP transparent at www.hawaiideservesbetter.com.